Trends in prevalence and burden of autism spectrum disorder in Chile from 1990 to 2021

Abstract

The autism spectrum disorder (ASD) prevalence has increased in many countries. However, studies on ASD health indicators in Chile are limited.

Objective: To estimate ASD prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) in Chile in 2021, stratified by sex and age, and to analyze trends from 1990 to 2021.

Material and Method: A secondary analysis of the data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was performed. Non-linear trends were evaluated by estimating the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

Results: In 2021, the crude prevalence and YLDs rate of ASD in Chile were 1.06% (95% CI 0.88-1.25) and 196 (95% CI 135-280) per 100,000 people, respectively. The prevalence was 2.2 times higher in males (1.47%; 95% CI 1.23-1.76) than in females (0.65%; 95% CI 0.54-0.78). Annual cases and YLDs in adults increased by approximately 75% from 1990 to 2021, while annual cases and YLDs in children and adolescents remained stable. Trend analysis revealed a slight annual increase in overall prevalence and in prevalence among children and adolescents (AAPC 0.03% and 0.05%, respectively) and an annual decrease in prevalence among females (AAPC -0.11%). Trends in YLDs rates were closely related to prevalence. No other significant changes were observed.

Conclusions: ASD prevalence in Chile in 2021 was higher in males than in females, with no significant age-related differences. Although overall and age-specific prevalence rates appear to be stable, the increase in total adult cases indicates a growing ASD burden in Chile. Further research is needed to identify underlying factors and address potential barriers to diagnosis and access to care.